Popular
Multiple New Multi-Commodity Targets
Triumph Gold Discovers a New Silver and Gold...
Falco Files Requested Documentation for the Horne 5 Project’s...
Nuvau Minerals Completes High Resolution Drone MAG Survey
Finlay Minerals Appoints an Executive Chairman, President &...
In China, some see the ghost of Mao...
Pope! Amigo! Peruvians remember the young American priest...
Dozens of boxes of Nazi materials found in...
Europe and US briefly upped the pressure on...
Trump’s Middle East trip leaves Netanyahu watching from...
Multiple New Multi-Commodity Targets
Triumph Gold Discovers a New Silver and Gold...
Falco Files Requested Documentation for the Horne 5 Project’s...
Nuvau Minerals Completes High Resolution Drone MAG Survey
Finlay Minerals Appoints an Executive Chairman, President &...
In China, some see the ghost of Mao...
Pope! Amigo! Peruvians remember the young American priest...
Dozens of boxes of Nazi materials found in...
Europe and US briefly upped the pressure on...
Trump’s Middle East trip leaves Netanyahu watching from...
  • Home
HotInvestingPilots.com
  • Politics
  • World News
  • Stock
  • Investing
Investing

Nickel Price Update: Q1 2025 in Review

by April 23, 2025
written by April 23, 2025

Nickel prices have largely trended down since breaking US$20,000 per metric ton in May 2024.

The decline has been attributed to refined nickel oversupply, driven by high output from Indonesia, which mined an estimated 2.2 million metric tons of nickel in 2024 and accounted for more than 50 percent of global output.

The threat of US tariffs has also weighed heavily on markets that are reliant on nickel and its downstream products, such as the stainless steel and electric vehicle battery industries.

These factors pushed nickel to five year lows in the US$15,000 range in Q1.

What happened to the nickel price in Q1?

Nickel price, January 2 to April 22, 2025.

Chart via Trading Economics.

While nickel has trended down for the past year, 2025 began with upward momentum. It opened the year at US$15,040 on January 2 and rose to US$16,080 before declining to close out the month at US$15,230.

Nickel prices started to gain briefly at the beginning of February, increasing to US$15,875 on February 6 before experiencing volatility until the end of the month, finishing at US$15,590 on February 28.

The start of March saw upward movement, and nickel hit a year-to-date high of US$16,720 on March 12.

Prices for the base metal remained above the US$16,000 mark until the end of March, when substantial pressures caused levels to plunge to US$14,150 on April 8.

What factors impacted nickel in Q1?

Over the past several years, oversupply has presented a significant headwind for nickel prices.

Due to heavy investment from China, Indonesia has emerged as the world’s dominant nickel supplier. However, even though its refined output has remained high, Indonesia has faced a tight nickel ore market because of reduced quotas, which have compelled smelters to import record volumes from the Philippines.

A recent Filipino government proposal to follow Indonesia’s lead in banning exports of raw nickel products could disrupt the situation and introduce further challenges for refiners, impacting global supply chains.

The proposal arose amid rumors of higher mining royalties that have circulated since the start of the year. This speculation boosted nickel prices as higher production costs started to be factored into prices.

The royalty hikes were approved on April 11, and will raise the current 10 percent rate to between 14 and 19 percent, depending on the nickel price. Lower-quality nickel mattes used in battery production will incur a 2 percent royalty.

Jason Sappor, senior analyst for metals and mining research at data provider S&P Global Commodity Insights, noted that the increase will pose another challenge for the industry.

Indonesian nickel miners previously asked the government to reconsider the change.

In a letter to government officials, industry stakeholders stated that the increases to mining royalty levels in the country are “unrealistic and do not reflect the current state of the industry.”

Another factor that impacted the nickel industry during the first quarter of the year was the threat and eventual implementation of US tariffs against China, the world’s largest consumer of nickel.

Ewa Manthy, commodities strategist with ING, suggested tariffs will further impact a beleaguered nickel market.

“London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel has been mostly rangebound amid heightened trade tensions,’ she said.

Manthy’s prediction has held true so far, with nickel prices plummeting 11.5 percent in the week following US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2. The move has sparked fears among investors who worry that the escalating trade war will push the world into a global recession.

Even though nickel rebounded after Trump put a pause on larger reciprocal tariffs, there is still a high level of uncertainty regarding nickel demand, especially as the effective tariff rates on China have grown to 145 percent.

Tariffs set to weigh on weak nickel demand

Tariffs are unlikely to affect nickel supply in the short term; however, they could significantly impact demand. The effects will be more pronounced in the US, as tariffs will more than double the costs of goods from China for importers.

The primary destination for nickel is the production of stainless steel.

While long-term global demand is expected to remain robust, with refined nickel projected to see a 4.6 percent compound annual growth rate between 2023 and 2035, there are more immediate headwinds.

Demand for stainless steel in China’s housing sector and slower growth in home appliances has dragged down overall nickel demand in the Asian nation. Although the overall effects could be worse, government policy and stimulus have only provided marginal support. Chinese stainless steel markets were also affected as new carbon tariffs and anti-dumping duties from Europe’s carbon border adjustment mechanism came into effect.

This has led analysts to predict another year of surpluses in China’s stainless steel market, with production increasing by 10.6 percent year-on-year in the first quarter and March output coming to 3.58 million metric tons. Even so, stockpiles stand at 155,000 metric tons, down significantly from 333,000 metric tons in Q1 2024.

The size of the stainless steel market may help moderate a decline in demand from the electric vehicle battery market, which is another significant destination for nickel. According to an April 14 report from S&P Global, the fall in battery demand comes despite growing demand for electric vehicles in both China and Europe; this has been attributed to producers transitioning to nickel-free battery chemistries, particularly lithium-iron-phosphate.

Producers see a greater cost advantage in this composition, and the switch has caused demand for nickel-manganese-cobalt batteries to shrink by 19 percent from January to February.

Due to this fallout, battery precursor producer CNGR Advanced Material (SZSE:300919) said it would be pausing investment in its South Korean nickel smelting project.

The battery sector represented 11.5 percent of total nickel demand in 2024.

Nickel price forecast for 2025

The short term for nickel could very well hinge on how Trump’s tariffs affect the global economy.

“A slowdown in global economic activity would have a detrimental impact on China’s exports of nickel-containing consumer goods, denting global primary nickel demand in a market already grappling with oversupply due to expanding production in top primary nickel producers Indonesia and China,” Sappor said.

He added that weaker fundamentals will likely increase bearishness in the nickel market and ultimately work to further depress prices for the base metal on the LME.

“Considering these potential dynamics as well as further evolutions in the Trump administration’s trade tariff policies, we expect nickel prices to remain volatile in the near term,” Sappor stated.

Manthy is also pessimistic about a market turnaround in the near to medium term.

“The main downside risk to our supply and demand outlook is further downgrades to nickel demand from the electric vehicle sector, but this could be offset by no growth in Indonesian supply. The medium-term supply and demand balance is not supportive of a significant rise in nickel prices,” she said.

For investors, a bear market might provide opportunities, but the risk is that nickel prices may still have a ways to go before they bottom out. The next quarter could offer more certainty in global financial markets.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Keep reading…Show less

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

0 comment
0
FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

previous post
Finlay Minerals stakes the JJB Property – within the Bear Lake Corridor of British Columbia
next post
Top 5 Canadian Biotech Stocks in 2025

Related Articles

Top 5 Canadian Mining Stocks This Week: Group...

May 11, 2025

Crypto Market Recap: Bitcoin Breaks US$100,000, Coinbase Makes...

May 11, 2025

Tech 5: OpenAI Restructures, Apple Pursues AI Search,...

May 11, 2025

Crypto Market Recap: Bitcoin Breaks US$100,000 as ETF...

May 10, 2025

7 Copper ETFs and ETNs

May 10, 2025

Multiple New Multi-Commodity Targets

May 12, 2025

Triumph Gold Discovers a New Silver and Gold...

May 12, 2025

Falco Files Requested Documentation for the Horne 5 Project’s...

May 12, 2025

Nuvau Minerals Completes High Resolution Drone MAG Survey

May 12, 2025

Finlay Minerals Appoints an Executive Chairman, President &...

May 12, 2025

Top 5 Canadian Mining Stocks This Week: Group...

May 11, 2025

Crypto Market Recap: Bitcoin Breaks US$100,000, Coinbase Makes...

May 11, 2025

Tech 5: OpenAI Restructures, Apple Pursues AI Search,...

May 11, 2025

Crypto Market Recap: Bitcoin Breaks US$100,000 as ETF...

May 10, 2025

7 Copper ETFs and ETNs

May 10, 2025

Multiple New Multi-Commodity Targets

May 12, 2025

Triumph Gold Discovers a New Silver and Gold...

May 12, 2025

Falco Files Requested Documentation for the Horne 5 Project’s...

May 12, 2025

Nuvau Minerals Completes High Resolution Drone MAG Survey

May 12, 2025

Finlay Minerals Appoints an Executive Chairman, President &...

May 12, 2025

Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

Recent Posts

  • In China, some see the ghost of Mao as Trump upends America and the world

    May 12, 2025
  • Pope! Amigo! Peruvians remember the young American priest who became pope

    May 12, 2025
  • Dozens of boxes of Nazi materials found in basement at top Argentinian court

    May 12, 2025
  • Europe and US briefly upped the pressure on Russia over Ukraine. Trump upended that

    May 12, 2025
  • Trump’s Middle East trip leaves Netanyahu watching from the sidelines again

    May 12, 2025
  • About us
  • Contact us
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions

Copyright © 2025 hotinvestingpilots.com | All Rights Reserved

HotInvestingPilots.com
  • Politics
  • World News
  • Stock
  • Investing